It’s draft season. That means it’s mock draft season. And big board season. The thing is, if you follow your favorite team (and if you’re reading this you probably are), do you want full analysis of every team’s draft prospects? Maybe, but surely you’re sick of wacky mock drafts by now, no?
Here at Bucs District we’re going to try something a little different. Instead of a big board or mock draft, we’re going to break down the conditions and scenarios that might play out on April 27.
Before predicting what players might fall to the Bucs either with the 19th pick or in a trade situation, we need to identify the players they won’t draft. These prospects fall in two categories: redundant players and the too-rich-for-my-blood guys.
Cataloguing the redundant players is easy. What positions would be a first-round pick be wasted? The list is short, including quarterback and middle linebacker. Jameis Winston and Kwon Alexander have their respective positions locked down, positions where depth isn’t a great premium.
The only other position group to possibly include is offensive line. While the need for more line talent is debatable, it seems clear the Bucs front office is fine standing pat with their starting line. The lack of offensive line talent this year makes an offensive line pick that much less likely.
The first-round prospects in the redundant column include:
Quarterback: Mitchell Trubisky, Deshaun Watson
This should be obvious. Jameis is the franchise. He’s easily better than Trubisky and Watson. The Bucs might draft a backup QB on Day 3 – they’re definitely not in the market for anything more.
Inside Linebacker: Reuben Foster
Another no-brainer. Kwon Alexander will be counted among the best middle linebackers in the NFL next season. Foster could be too one day. Tampa Bay simply isn’t big enough for the both of them.
Offensive Line: Cam Robinson, Forrest Lamp, Ryan Ramczyk, Garrett Bolles
Are the Bucs set at offensive line? Jason Licht and Dirk Koetter seem to think so. The line’s play last year indicates otherwise, but apparently J.R. Sweezy is next big thing, even if he is returning from a season-long back injury (which is really not a good sign). A guy like Lamp would be a good addition to the Bucs offensive line. The Bucs just won’t add one this early.
The too-rich-for-my-blood column is comprised of players likely to go in the top five or ten selections. While trades are not impossible, the draft capital needed for the Bucs to move up to this level makes such a move prohibitively expensive, especially considering the depth of this year’s draft.
The players in this column include:
Safety: Jamal Adams, Malik Hooker
The Bucs would take either of these guys in a heartbeat. The secondary remains a position of weakness and lacks big playmakers. Somehow the top of the draft features two at safety. Don’t be surprised to see Adams and Hooker go in the first ten picks to Chicago, Cincinnati or Buffalo.
Defensive End: Myles Garrett, Solomon Thomas
Garrett and Thomas are both likely top-five picks. The Bucs have a decent rotation at defensive end, but there’s no such thing as too many pass-rushers. Garrett is projected to go first overall to Cleveland. Thomas would fit on pretty much any of the first five teams.
Defensive Tackle: Jonathan Allen
This draft isn’t especially deep at defensive tackle so Allen will garner a lot of attention from the first ten teams. His athleticism and versatility won’t keep in on the market for long. He won’t get past Arizona, but he should be a trade-up target.
Wide Receiver: Mike Williams, Corey Davis
Williams is another possible top-five pick, though Davis may be the better prospect. Don’t let Davis’ ankle injury and lack of test scores fool you into thinking he’ll slip very far. His tape doesn’t lie. He’s big, fast and can catch pretty much everything thrown at him. The Titans, Panthers and Niners could all vie for their services.
Cornerback: Marshon Lattimore
As I said in the Primer, this draft is loaded with defensive back talent top to bottom. Lattimore reigns at the top of the heap and shouldn’t make it past the first ten picks. Tennessee should be interested in him, but he’ll be gone if he reaches the tenth pick with Buffalo.
Tight End: OJ Howard
Okay, when I did the review of the Bucs’ tight end situation I said the Bucs shouldn’t be interested in OJ Howard. I was wrong. Wrong wrong wrong. The Alabama TE may be the most complete tight ends to come out since Gronk. He is a walking, talking mismatch with legitimate blocking ability. I’m predicting he ends up in Jacksonville.
Sixteen prospects off the board. There is still plenty of talent to consider for the Bucs’ first round pick. Stay tuned for Part 2!