Category: The Filibuster

The Filibuster 2022: Week 6

The shine is off the 2022 Buccaneers.

Tampa lost in embarrassing fashion to the Pittsburgh Steelers, scoring a measly 18 points on a defense missing All Pro linebacker T.J. Watt, Pro Bowl safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and its three top cornerbacks. Tom Brady looked as neutered as he ever has in a Bucs uniform. The defense was mostly dominant but faltered in key high leverage situations.

The problem is that the team does not have just one problem, and the biggest issues are not things that can be fixed overnight. Coaching is certainly one of them. Offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich looks unwilling and perhaps incapable of making in-game adjustments. The first-down runs are endemic, with Tampa averaging runs on 46.1% of first downs, 18th in the NFL, down from 3rd in 2021 (via rbsdm).

The offense generally has become anemic, averaging 6.7 yards per pass attempt, 22nd in the NFL, and 3.1 yards per rush, good for dead last in the league. Most concerning is their inability to convert on third downs (37.8%) or in the red zone (50%), ranking 22nd in the league in both categories.

It is a little harder to blame Todd Bowles given how well the defense is playing overall, but it is his show now. It is also not hard to draw a line from his ascendence to head coach and the higher rate of first-down runs and the overall conservative play on offense.

The issues on defense were limited to some poor discipline, like Devin White’s early roughing call that led to the Steelers’ first touchdown and, well, Mitch Trubisky’s last two drives. These struggles are an emerging pattern for the Bucs defense. Despite ranking top ten in yards and points allowed, they are allowing 42.7% of third downs and 75% of red zone trips to be converted, ranking 22nd and 29th in the league respectively. While this is a problem, it is offset somewhat by the fact the Bucs defense has allowed just 16 red zone trips all season.

What was more concerning was the implosion of the pass offense. Brady still makes great throws, but he was also making some really questionable throws in Pittsburgh. He targeted Chris Godwin 12 times but he was only able to come down with six receptions for 95 yards. Meanwhile, Mike Evans was targeted just four times against a team fielding a significant number of practice squad defensive backs.

Granted, Brady’s issues and the offensive problems overall could be attributed to the absolutely abysmal play of the offensive line. Losing Ali Marpet and Ryan Jensen is proving to be a monumental shift in the offense’s overall effectiveness. Robert Hainsey seems to be an adequate fill-in for Jensen, but Luke Goedeke is an unmitigated disaster at left guard. Every week the Bucs manage to face a top end defensive tackle who just happens to line up over Goedeke and destroys him throughout the game.

For the past two seasons, the Bucs have dominated opponents based in large part on the strength of the roster, particularly on the offensive line. That is no longer an advantage and it shows.

There is no calvary coming over the hill. The coaching staff is not going to change. Bruce Arians won’t be coming back, and even if he did, it would be hard to imagine he would do much differently than his protege.

Trading for a new starting left guard is a highly unlikely scenario, though the Bucs should explore fitting other linemen on the roster in Goedeke’s spot. Some help at defensive tackle could also be in order, with some veteran free agents like Ndamukong Suh and Brandon Williams still available.

Ultimately, it comes down to coaching. Simply, this roster still has a good deal of talent but it is not leveraged to its greatest potential. Bowles and his staff must instill a greater sense of urgency if they have any greater ambition than an early playoff exit.

The Filibuster 2022: Week 3 Review

As it turns out, an NFL team can only be so deep at wide receiver and offensive tackle.

There really isn’t that much more to take away from the Bucs’ Week 3 loss to the Packers. The defense continued to be among the league’s best, particularly in the second half. Tom Brady went 31 of 42 for 271 yards and a touchdown and no interceptions, playing mostly mistake-free football with a noticeably diminished supporting cast.

Quite simply, the potency of the Bucs offense comes from the top-end talent at receiver. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are considered a top-three duo for a reason. Even having a healthy Julio for just a handful of snaps per game would be a massive upgrade.

Instead, Brady is playing with a receiving corps not far removed from his last days in New England. Russell Gage flashed, leading the team with 12 receptions for 87 yards and a touchdown, but he is clearly battling through his hamstring injury. Scotty Miller is proving to the rest of the football world why he was on the bubble heading into the season, catching just one pass out of his five targets.

Breshad Perriman and Cole Beasley are very clearly replacement level players at this point in their careers. Cam Brate is still Captain Conversion, with five of his six targets leading to first downs, but he is the tight end room’s only meaningful contributor to the receiving game.

Fortunately, the Bucs get Mike Evans back next week and might even get Julio as well (via the Athletic’s Greg Auman):

Evans alone is a force multiplier in his ability to beat most cornerbacks in man coverage while freeing up the rest of the receivers to play against defensive backs further down the depth chart. Any snaps the Bucs get out of Jones are just frosting on the cake.

The depth on the offensive line presents a similar if not quite as glaring an issue. All three of Green Bay’s sacks came on pass rush wins against the Bucs’ back-ups and rookie left guard Luke Goedeke. Back-up LT Brandon Walton played admirably but was frequently outmatched by Rashan Gary and Preston Smith. The impending return of Donovan Smith should right the ship.

What is concerning is the implosion of the run game. Tampa averaged a measly 2.7 yards per carry, which was clearly a function of the run blocking up front. Leonard Fournette did everything he could to add yards despite meeting contact at or before the line of scrimmage on most of his attempts, nearly half of which went for no or negative yards.

No doubt the loss of Ryan Jensen and Ali Marpet is the key factor to the overall decline in the line’s play, but neither is coming over the hill to save the day this season. Goedeke and center Robert Hainsey will have to pick up their play down the stretch if the Bucs hope to make a run for the Super Bowl.

The final and possibly most serious issue was the offensive play-calling. Offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich is not doing much to adjust to the diminished talent on offense through the first three games, relying too much on Tom Brady playing hero-ball on third down.

Leftwich’s attempts at being “multiple” on offense do not adhere to the reality of the issues he currently faces on the offensive line. Consecutive runs out of 1st and 20 that gain zero yards following a holding penalty on a first down run isn’t “multiple,” it’s neolithic. The overemphasis on the run may be a directive coming down from Bowles, but the lack of creativity in the play design and selection is hard to miss.

Until this offense can get right, the Bucs can at least lean on the defense. Yes, they allowed two relatively easy scores to a Packers offense that was content to pick them apart with 10-play drives, but following the Aaron Jones fumble, the Bucs defense locked down Green Bay. In the following 10 drives, the Bucs allowed just 90 total yards, only one of which crossed into Tampa territory.

The Bucs defense added two more takeaways and a sack on Sunday and continue to lead the league in points allowed with 27 through three games. The last time the Bucs were first in points allowed was 2002, the year of their first Super Bowl win. Unfortunately, the current offense is 22nd in points scored, compared to the 2002 Bucs’ 18th-ranked offense. While this may not hold, the Bucs will need their defense to remain at this level until Leftwich, Brady and company get on the same page.

If anything, the Bucs just need to avoid needing Tom Brady to do anything like this ever again:

The Filibuster 2022: Week 2 Review

Jameis Winston, the gift that keeps on giving. Only, this time, Tampa enjoys the spoils.

After two years, the Tom Brady-led Bucs finally break their regular season losing streak against the New Orleans Saints. Thanks to a massive defensive effort and some well-timed throws from Brady, the Bucs have already established their NFC South dominance for the season.

Just two games into the season, the Bucs defense looks like it may be the best in the NFL. They have allowed just 13 points over two weeks, the fewest of any team in the league, and their -.358 EPA per play leads the league (except the Bills) by a significant margin. They rank first in sacks (10), second in takeaways (6) and third in yards per play (4.2).

From rbdsm.com

What is behind this apparent return to 2002? Frankly, everything. Shaq Barrett continues to be Shaq Barrett, winning on 32.5% of his pass rushes in true pass sets (via PFF). The secondary is the best it has looked in years, thanks in no small part to finally starting Jamel Dean over Sean Murphy-Bunting. There is a reason why Dean played 100% of the defensive snaps over the past two weeks:

Jamel Dean, 2022 stats, Weeks 1-2

Coverage SnapsTargetsReceptionsYards/ReceptionPBUINT
971365.512

The run defense is not quite as stout as it had been in the past, allowing 4.6 per carry. That has not encouraged teams to run on Tampa more this season, as they have faced 38 rush attempts this season which is the exact same number as last year through Week 2.

The Bucs have needed the defense to be dominant because the offense just does not look the same as it has since Brady’s arrival. The offense is averaging a paltry -0.105 EPA per play, 25th in the league.

The pass offense has not been nearly as potent or efficient, with Brady completing just 59% of his passes for 383 yards, two touchdowns and a pick. This year he is averaging 6.6 yards per attempt, a far cry from the 7.5 yards per attempt he averaged the last two years.

The run offense is even worse. Despite averaging a measly 3.6 yards per carry, 26th in the league, the Bucs are 7th in run attempts, which is likely why Tampa has the league’s worst rush EPA at -0.326.

Both issues come down to injuries. Just as injuries decimated the defense last year, the Bucs offense is in complete triage this season. The offensive line is down to just two of the preseason starters, and the loss of Ryan Jensen appears indeed to be a big deal. Normally an iron man, Donovan Smith’s elbow injury hopefully will not keep him out long as the Bucs also lost backup left tackle Josh Wells on Sunday.

The wide receiver corps, for all its preseason depth, is a carousel of broken bodies. Julio Jones and Chris Godwin both lasted one game before their legs literally gave way. Mike Evans is usually nicked up throughout the season and guts it out, but he also just played the Saints so of course he got into a fight with Marcus Lattimore and is facing a one-game suspension (via NFL.com’s Ian Rapaport):

The rest of the receiver depth has been inconsistent at best. Breshad Perriman did show up for his annual game-winning touchdown against New Orleans, but he along with Russell Gage, Scotty Miller and Jaelon Darden combined for 13 receptions and 120 yards in two weeks. Gage in particular has been disappointing given his $10 million APY salary, but he started the season with a hamstring injury of his own.

It has gotten to the point where the Bucs are now signing what Tom Brady loves most: white slot receivers (from NFL.com’s Mike Garafolo):

First, no, Beasley is not going to replace Scotty Miller, who is more likely to play snaps missed by Evans during his suspension. Instead Beasley is an attempt to get Tom Brady an over-the-middle option that has been missing from this year’s offense. Of throws between the numbers under 20 yards, Brady is 13 of 21 for 113 yards, completing 61% of his passes and averaging 5.3 yards per attempt. Last year he completed 71.6% of his passes and averaged 8 yards per attempt in this area.

Beasley truly embodies the trope of the tough white slot receiver. The over-the-middle throw is his bread and butter, catching 88.5% of his targets for 1006 yards and averaging 9.6 yards per target over the last two years. This accounted for 60% of his production in the Bills passing offense. This guy actually could be the Florida Julian Edelman for Tampa Tom.

Voluminous though they are, the offense’s woes are not worthy of panic. There are still 15 games left in the season, and aside from Ryan Jensen’s mystery knee injury, none of the injuries appear to be long-term (well… at least not yet for Julio). Even if the Bucs drop the next two games, there is plenty of time to right the ship and sail into the playoffs fully loaded.

The Filibuster 2017: Week 5

Fire Nick Folk.

Check.

Well the Bucs have one less problem to fix. The rest aren’t so simple.

Tampa Bay should have won last Thursday’s game against the Patriots. Chiefly, they soundly won the turnover battle. They committed fewer penalties. Ultimately they had more opportunities to score than the Patriots.

Still, the loss doesn’t rest solely on the leg of Folk. The box score does not reflect just how mediocre Jameis Winston was against the Patriots defense. He pinned the pass game on forcing the ball to Desean Jackson. While Jackson got his first 100-yard game in Tampa, Winston’s proclivities left the rest of the pass offense out to dry.

Before the fourth quarter, Winston went 13-for-25 for 109 yards. It took the return of Doug Martin to get the Bucs down the field and in the endzone (more on this in a second). Winston turned it on in the fourth quarter, going 13-for-21 for 225 yards and a score (as well as a rush touchdown that was called back due to an otherwise meaningless penalty on Evan Smith).

The Bucs can’t afford for Winston to spend most of a game trying to build a rapport with Jackson, nor can they wait until the fourth quarter to get the pass game synchronized.

The solution may lie with the returned and reinvigorated Doug Martin. On the Bucs’ second quarter touchdown drive, Martin carved up the Patriots defense for 48 yards on five carries. Without Martin’s 1-yard scoring run, he averaged a crushing 11.8 yards per carry.

As Martin’s suspension kept him away from practices, Dirk Koetter kept him on a snap count. Still, he took a vast majority of the rushing snaps—13 to Jacquizz Rodgers’ three and Charles Sims’ one. However, Sims took a majority of the overall running back snaps with 26 though he was often split out wide as a receiver.

It is only a matter of time before Martin takes over as the feature back. In case it wasn’t obvious from his performance last Thursday, Martin is by far Tampa Bay’s best ball carrier. He jumped gaps almost instantaneously and broke virtually every initial tackle on his runs.

Credit is also due to the Bucs offensive line, which opened some good holes against the Patriots front. However the line historically struggles with consistency and is as likely to force Bucs running backs to make their own running lanes.

Martin is the key to the entire offense, at least until Winston becomes more consistent. The Bucs offense is built on medium-to-long range passes—higher risk plays. They need a potent running game to keep defenses honest and open things up for their receivers.

Jacquizz Rodgers hasn’t proven capable of carrying the run game. Martin’s 13 carries last week exhibited far more promise.

There’s not much to say about the defense except to commend them for how well they played against the NFL’s top offense. The Bucs were soft against the run, but they bullied and battered Tom Brady into a mediocre outing and were the first team to hold New England under 20 points.

All this was accomplished with several starters missing. No Lavonte David, no Kwon Alexander, no TJ Ward, no Keith Tandy—the next men up did their jobs. Justin Evans is progressing faster than expected, and Kendall Beckwith is yet another linebacker gem found by the Bucs.

Next week the Bucs face the Arizona Cardinals, a team that stomped them in Week 2 last year. However, the teams find themselves on opposite trajectories. The Bucs have a resurgent Doug Martin and opportunistic defense against an aging, decrepit offense and an underperforming defense.

On a personal note, I was in Tampa this week but not for any Bucs related reason. My grandfather passed away last week. He lived in Tampa my entire life, after a career as an Air Force chaplain including a tour in Vietnam. He’s the reason I became a Bucs fan. He was a good man and I’ll miss him.